As the 2024 Presidential election draws near, the potential impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy on the race has become a topic of discussion. However, according to Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University who has correctly predicted the winner of the US Presidential election for over four decades, Kennedy’s chances of winning the White House are slim to none.
Lichtman’s assessment of Kennedy as a third-party candidate with minimal influence on either President Joe Biden or his likely Republican challenger, Donald Trump, is a realistic one. History has shown that third-party candidates often struggle to gain significant traction in the American political system, which is dominated by the two major parties.
While some may view Kennedy’s entry into the race as a potential game-changer, Lichtman’s analysis suggests otherwise. The professor’s “13 Keys to the White House” system, which focuses on historical criteria rather than polls or surveys, indicates that Biden currently holds the advantage. As the incumbent President who faced no competition for his party’s nomination, Biden already possesses two of the 13 keys.
However, Lichtman also acknowledges that “a lot of things could go wrong” for the President. The first criterion, which asks whether the President’s party has a majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, is not in Biden’s favor. Additionally, factors such as the state of the economy, social unrest, military success, and personal scandals could all play a role in determining the election’s outcome.
It is important to note that Lichtman’s system, developed in collaboration with renowned earthquake predictor Vladimir Keilis-Borok, is based on historical analysis and has proven to be remarkably accurate. According to the professor, if a sitting President meets six of the 13 criteria, they will be re-elected; if not, their opponent will win.
While some may dismiss Lichtman’s predictions as mere speculation, his track record speaks for itself. Conservatives would be wise to take his analysis seriously and focus their efforts on supporting a strong Republican candidate who can effectively challenge President Biden on the issues that matter most to the American people.
Ultimately, the 2024 Presidential election will be decided by the voters, not by pundits or analysts. However, Lichtman’s insights provide a valuable perspective on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for both the incumbent President and his potential challengers.
